STYLETHREAD -- LET'S TALK SHOP!

I'm just now getting around to posting on this topic.

Yesterday in the National Journal's Poll Track, they ran a poll asking which politician would you rather have come to Thanksgiving at your house, Hillary Clinton or John McCain?  About a third wanted Hillary, a third wanted McCain, and a third said they'd never want a politician at their house for Thanksgiving.  Not surprising was that most Dems picked Hillary and most Repubs picked McCain, but independents picked McCain over Hillary by an 11 point margin.  This is significant IMO.  I see the nation as very much being divided into red states and blue states now.  I think Hillary would have no problem winning the blue states, but I don't see how she can win a southern state and I don't see how she's going to get moderates or conservatives to believe she's anything less than a liberal, so I don't see how she could convert any red states or defeat a moderate Republican like McCain in a swing state.  As for being a woman, yeah, that helps her to some extent, but I don't think it's enough to push her over the edge.  I think she's working hard to appear to be more moderate, but I just don't think people are going to buy it.

As much as I'd love to see a woman in the White House in 2008, I don't think it's going to happen.  I don't think a minority will happen in 2008 though either, unfortunately.  One term in the Senate is not going to be enough to get Barak Obama elected (look at John Edwards as an example).  I could be totally wrong on both of these fronts though.  Who knows if Condi is going to run?  If she does, it could be really interesting, because I don't think she's as far to the right as the rest of the Bush administration.