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Post Info TOPIC: A Question about Michigan and Florida


Marc Jacobs

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A Question about Michigan and Florida
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Can somebody help me out here...why on earth did Michigan and Florida hold their primaries too early to even count as delegates? Someone knew the rules, right?? Was it just because they weren't expecting this primary race to be so contested?

Here's a recent NYTimes article to shed a little light:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/us/politics/07delegates.html?hp=&pagewanted=all

(if anybody knows how to copy/paste this so it appears as a real article, let me know)

Democrats Try to End Impasse Over Delegates

WASHINGTON With the two Democratic presidential candidates in near-deadlock and battling for every delegate, party leaders and the rival campaigns started searching in earnest on Thursday for a way to seat barred delegations from Florida and Michigan. But they remained deeply divided over how to do so.

After weeks in which the issue hovered in the background, it shot to the forefront of the Democratic race as it became apparent that the delegates at stake could be vital in influencing whether Senator Barack Obama or Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton wins the nomination.

Mrs. Clinton won the most votes in primaries in Florida and Michigan in January. But the states held their contests earlier than allowed by the Democratic National Committees rules, leading the party to strip them of their delegates to the nominating convention. Neither candidate campaigned actively in the two states, and Mr. Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan.

Mr. Obama has maintained a slim but steady lead over Mrs. Clinton in delegates awarded by voting in the primaries and caucuses of other states. The Clinton campaign is hoping she can translate her advantage in the popular vote in Florida and Michigan into a big share of their combined 367 delegates.

The fate of those disputed delegates has emerged as a battle between the candidates that could be as important as their next big primary contest, in Pennsylvania next month.

But though the states, the party and the candidates have all suggested that they have no choice but to find a solution and that they are open to another round of voting, much remains to be settled. Among the issues are what kind of contests to hold, when to hold them, how to allocate the delegates and, critically, who picks up the multimillion-dollar tab in each state.

Ill leave it up to the Democratic National Committee to make a decision about how to resolve it, Mr. Obama told ABC News on Thursday night. But I certainly want to make sure that weve got Michigan and Florida delegates at the convention in some fashion.

The campaigns are not negotiating with each other, but are talking through surrogates and party leaders about a variety of options.

Aides to Mrs. Clinton, brimming with confidence after primary victories in Ohio and Texas this week, signaled that they were open to a revote under certain conditions. Aides to Mr. Obama were warier, sensing that the recent change in the electoral and psychological dynamic could work against him in any new election in those two states, Democrats said.

In the contests in January, Mrs. Clinton prevailed in Florida by 50 percent to 33 percent over Mr. Obama. In Michigan, where Mr. Obamas name was not on the ballot, Mrs. Clinton took 55 percent of the vote while uncommitted won 40 percent.

We havent ruled out rerunning these contests, said Harold Ickes, a top adviser to Mrs. Clinton and her chief delegate hunter. Weve said we think it should be settled. We believe some configuration could be devised that each party is not happy with but each party is willing to accept.

In a sign of growing involvement by party leaders, Speaker Nancy Pelosi met privately Thursday with Mr. Ickes and Maggie Williams, Mrs. Clintons campaign manager, and discussed, among other topics, the Florida and Michigan primary problem, the tone of the campaign and the role of superdelegates. At an earlier news conference, Ms. Pelosi said that the Florida-Michigan issue was a matter of party rules but that she hoped a solution could be found before the partys convention.

David Plouffe, Mr. Obamas campaign manager, floated the idea of allocating the delegates from the two states 50-50, which would erase Mrs. Clintons hypothetical advantage and essentially make the two states meaningless in the competitive delegate count. It would, however, allow Michigan and Florida delegates to participate in the national convention.

Even if Florida and Michigan conduct new elections, it is unlikely that either candidate will have enough pledged delegates to win the nomination outright, advisers to both campaigns say. But their relative strength in pledged delegates could affect their ability to attract support from superdelegates, the elected officials and party leaders whose choices are likely to determine the outcome.

If the results of the two primaries are allowed to stand and Mr. Obama is awarded the delegates won by uncommitted on the Michigan ballot, Mrs. Clinton would pick up 64 delegates toward the 2,209 that would be needed to secure the nomination if the full Florida and Michigan delegations were seated, according to calculations by her campaign. Mr. Plouffe said he believed Mrs. Clintons net advantage would be slightly smaller.

Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic Party, said on Thursday that it was up to the states, not the national party, to come up with a solution. But Mr. Dean ruled out seating the delegations based on the voting in January.

You cant change the rule in the middle of the game, he said in an interview on NBCs Today program.

Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm of Michigan, a Democrat, and Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, a Republican, have jointly called on the national party to resolve the situation. Aides to both said on Thursday that they were seeking a solution that did not require either state to pay for new elections.

Ms. Granholm, a Clinton supporter, said Thursday that there would be a noisy protest at the Democratic convention if the Michigan delegation was not seated. But she left open the possibility of a new Democratic primary, as long as the taxpayers or the state party do not have to foot the bill.

If there is a redo, it has to be inclusive, she said. Whatever it is would have to be a primary-like election.

Florida officials said rerunning a statewide primary could cost as much as $18 million, which some state officials consider prohibitive. A revote is not going to happen, said Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida, a supporter of Mrs. Clinton.

Michigan officials did not estimate the cost of a new election, but party leaders involved in negotiating a solution said that a full statewide election, as opposed to a caucus, could cost as much as $10 million.

A group of Michigan Democratic party elders have been meeting quietly for weeks seeking a solution to the deadlock. The members, all of them officially neutral in the primary, include Senator Carl Levin; Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick; Ron Gettelfinger, the head of the United Auto Workers; and Debbie Dingell, a top General Motors executive, Democratic National Committee member and the wife of Representative John D. Dingell.

However it gets resolved, Ms. Dingell said. it must be a consensus involving all parties, result in the entire delegation being seated, be supported by both candidates and the D.N.C. and be practical and affordable.

There is also strong consensus that Michigan undertook this because we believe the current system is broken and we believe there must be real and fundamental change in the process and it must be addressed.

In Florida, Senator Bill Nelson, a Democrat who supports Mrs. Clinton, and the state party chairwoman, Karen Thurman, who is neutral, said the national party or some other source should pay for any do-over. Both insisted that Floridas delegates must be seated, even if that meant allocating the delegates according to the Jan. 29 results.

If we dont do anything, were looking at a train wreck, Mr. Nelson said. Im hoping reasonable heads with prevail and will see the Democratic Party doesnt want to be at the convention in Denver two months out from the general election and having a major intraparty fight with two of the biggest and most important states in electing the next president.

Peter S. Goodman contributed reporting from Michigan, and Carl Hulse from Washington.



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Marc Jacobs

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I have no idea why they broke the rules, but just wanted to say that I'm in favor of new primaries, and the cost of the new primaries should totally fall on Michigan and Florida and not the DNC. They violated the agreement (despite voting for it!), it's their own fault! the DNC needs to save all its resources for the upcoming general election.

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Marc Jacobs

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I think one of the reasons they held their primaries early is that each state wants their primary to matter.  Iowa--despite providing only a small number of delegates--gets a lot of recognition because of its tradition of being an important, early contest. 

Other states want that big hoo-hah surrounding their primaries so they can get a ton of press coverage.  To me it has been rendered a moot point because they held their primaries early like they wanted but didn't get much fanfare for it because the numbers didn't count.  Now we really need those numbers to count because the race is so tight.  In the end, it's the individual voter who gets screwed.  Your vote doesn't count; and--now--we might even make you do it over again!  Cake and eat it too...Doesn't work.

Who ever would have imagined that late primaries such as North Carolina would matter that much when this whole thing started. 

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Chanel

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I'm too lazy to look up an article but I think the reason Florida (at least - not sure about Michigan) had their primary early is because it got attached to a bill that essentially made it so that if the democratic party in florida didn't agree to move up the primary they wouldn't get funding or wouldn't get a primary or something like that. I forget the consequence but it was forced on them by the Repub majority over there. It was a "take this or nothing" type situation. They were forced to have their primaries on the same days the Repubs had theirs, if I remember correctly.

So I feel kind of bad for them and I think the state gov't should have to fund the do-overs (since they're the ones that caused the big screw up in the first place). But it looks like the DNC will have to fund them in the end (the do-overs).

Michigan is just a ridiculous argument. HRC was the only one on the ballot. There's no way those delegates can count, as is. They'll definitely have to go again. Florida has more of an argument for counting the delegates as is because although they weren't supposed to, Obama technically campaigned there. He didn't really but some of his ads showed in FL due to the "package" and how they were purchased. FL couldn't be phased out for the ads, so they aired there.

I think they're both headed towards caucuses. Those are much easier to arrange last minute and cheaper. That bodes well for Obama since he does better in caucus states but it'll probably be as even as all the other states. HRC is strong in both states. We'll see...

I also believe that Howard Dean (the Adam in my Eden-like utopia) is arguing for counting the delegates because the alternative is a lawsuit, which would totally suck. I don't think he has much of a choice anymore.

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